
Bob Sullivan
There’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of cryptocurrency, and there’s no better skeptic than Molly White, a programmer-turned-publisher who runs the popular newsletter “Citation Needed.” So I was delighted to interview her recently for The Perfect Scam podcast I host.
There’s no bias like confirmation bias, and there’s no confirmation bias like someone who has invested in something – particularly something new and hard to understand. In the long-running argument about crypto — is it a world-changing technology or a Ponzi scheme? — investors can’t help but root for one side of that debate.
Of course, this is more than just confirmation bias. In a Ponzi scheme, faith=money. Other people’s faith. So long as there are greater fools around, early Ponzi owners and their investments are safe. Only when the music stops playing do people get hurt. These are all powerful forces that push rational people to do irrational things. And of course they react emotionally to anyone who wants to rain on their parade, who might hasten the end of the music with “pessimism.”
So, Molly White isn’t very popular among crypto investors. If you really listen to her, I think you’ll find her quite reasonable, however.
Before we get to Molly in this episode, we speak with Glen Fishman, an early crypto investor who recently had almost $200,000 stolen from him in a sophisticated phishing scam. Thanks to quick investigative work, federal agents were able to recover about half of the stolen crypto, but he was initially told it would take about a year to get his money back. It had been “removed” to an El Salvador-based exchange.
We tell Glen’s story to demonstrate that cryptocurrency holders do not enjoy many of the basic consumer protections that protect other financial account holders. In fact, such protections fly in the face of the libertarian ideals that fuel the crypto world. I’m not against this in any kind of philosophical way, but as a pragmatic matter, it’s a disaster. We see this is the rise of crypto ATMs, which have finally been outed as (almost entirely) a bank network for criminals. Unregulated money systems always devolve into cesspools of crime. Some grow out of this phase, and I do wish this for cryptocurrency. But wishing is not a plan, and there are a lot of Glens out there who wish they understood this sooner.
Sophisticated financial tinkerers with money to burn are welcome to invest in crypto, of course, just as they are welcome to enjoy themselves in Las Vegas. But I worry: the investment bubble that is crypto relies on constantly recruiting more participants, and once again we are seeing an aggressive push into the consumer market. I’m quite certain many buyers do not realize the extent to which they are playing with fire.
I don’t doubt that when the dust settles, there will be some real winners, and there will be a couple of interesting use cases for crypto. But in large part, cryptocurrency investing is still mere speculation, and when the bubble bursts, there’s going to be a lot of collateral damage. Many innocent bystanders will be hurt, as they always are. We will learn that crypto has infiltrated some unexpected parts of the economy (like state pension funds), and I believe the fallout will be even wider than many pessimists expect. We should be doing a lot more to contain this highly predictable damage right now. (Like this!) Instead, for fairly obvious reasons, the current administration is smashing crypto guardrails. We all know how this story ends. We saw it in 2001 and 2009. It’s a shame our memories are so terrible.
I hope you’ll listen to the full conversation. But in case you aren’t into podcasts, here’s a partial transcript of our conversation, very lightly edited for clarity.
——————-Partial transcript——————-
[00:38:22] Bob: There is an element in crypto baked right into its nature, which makes it more susceptible to theft of large amounts of money. In a way, it’s kind of built for that. We all know that it’s not just passwords that protect people’s financial accounts in the US, that there’s magic software that monitors transactions, particularly credit card transactions, but all transactions, and if somebody shows up and moves $178,000 suddenly out of an account, a red flag would pop up. We all have to trust that financial institutions are good at this, some aren’t, but should I trust that crypto exchanges are good at this? Would I have any reason to believe that?
[00:39:03] Molly White: Again, it really varies based on the company, but I would say that broadly in crypto, there’s actually a lot of resistance to the idea of placing limits on the types of transactions people can make and the amounts that people can transfer. The same types of limits that prevent someone from having their bank account drained by a bad actor are sometimes seen in the crypto world as an unfair infringement on your right to do what you please with your assets. And so there’s this sort of fragile balancing act that these companies have to take where they don’t anger their customers who feel like they should have access to the entirety of their accounts at any time, while also trying to prevent some sort of bad actor from completely draining the account. And so I would say that generally speaking, a lot of these programs in crypto exchanges are not as robust as in banks and other financial firms partly for that reason, partly because these companies are in some cases just less sophisticated, and then there’s also the issue where not everyone stores their crypto assets in a centralized account at an exchange like Coinbase or any of the various competitors that can impose those limits. And if you are storing your crypto assets in a wallet that is fully under your control and not at a third-party company, then there is no limit whatsoever on who can transfer the funds or to where or in what period of time, and there is absolutely no protection of that kind.
[00:40:40] Bob: That kind of transaction monitoring is basically against the whole ethos of cryptocurrency, right?
[00:40:46] Molly White: For many people it is. I think that as crypto has evolved and become more popular, we are seeing more people who appreciate the types of intervention by these third party exchanges or institutions that do add some degree of customer protection, but a lot of people do believe that ultimately these are my assets, I should be allowed to do anything I want with them, to transfer them immediately in any amount without anyone stepping in the way and saying, no, you’re not allowed to do what you want with your money. This is a very sort of libertarian ethos that underlies a lot of the crypto philosophy where people really don’t like the idea of anyone getting in the way of them and their money, whether it’s a government or a bank or some sort of compliance system or transaction monitoring. And so you have this sort of social opposition to these types of things as well as the limits that these companies are willing to go to to impose these types of systems.
[00:41:47] Bob: I think this is a really important point that I want to drive home for listeners, because okay, it’s one thing if you’re a tech person, you’re a libertarian, and go to a casino on the weekends for all I care, and you can invest in crypto for all I care, but when regular people who aren’t sophisticated, as we’re now in the next type cycle of this, become more and more involved in crypto, and they, they go to websites that might resemble a financial institution that they’re used to, and they might just presume there are protections around the transactions; I think that’s, that would be normal. I think it’s important to stress to them that they’re out on their own when it comes to crypto. Can you talk about that a little bit?
[00:42:23] Molly White: Absolutely. This is something I really try to drive home for people because I think, especially in the US, we’ve become very comfortable with some amount of protection around the financial activities that we engage in whether it’s banks offering depository insurance or transaction monitoring in our financial institutions, or oversight from securities regulators making sure that the stock exchange is a fair place to, to buy and sell assets. We become used to it and we begin to expect it everywhere, especially if the place we’re looking at really resembles a bank or a stock exchange or something like that. But ultimately, those protections are not there in crypto despite the similar appearance. We saw a really stark example of this in 2022 when a company called Celsius collapsed, and that was a crypto brokerage that had been advertising itself to customers as better than banks and providing services that banks would normally provide but describing themselves as the alternative, the superior alternative to a bank. Ultimately, it turned out that there was a lot of shady business happening at that company. The company collapsed and went bankrupt, and a number of customers wrote letters to the bankruptcy judge explaining how it had affected them. And I read multiple letters throughout that bankruptcy process that explained that: I didn’t think this could happen because this company was based in the United States, I thought US regulators were making sure everything was above board. Many people said they thought they had FDIC insurance on their assets in those accounts even though that type of depository insurance is not available in the crypto sector. So people thought that they were taking on a lot less risk than they actually were, and ultimately it destroyed some people’s lives. And this is really an issue throughout crypto where people just become used to these types of protections and they can’t fathom the idea that there is this total wild west financial sector that is advertising to everyday people, promising them the world, but there is really no safeguards there.
[00:44:44] Bob: Okay, so I hope you’re getting the message that if you invest in crypto, well you’re kind of on your own. And that’s okay if you do so with your eyes wide open. But there’s something else about crypto that’s important to understand; there’s just a lot of crime that travels across the network.
[00:45:01] Molly White: Crypto has become the choice for criminals doing any sort of cybercrime essentially. It has, because of its traceability challenges for law enforcement and others, because of the irreversibility of transactions, it’s a perfect asset for criminals, and now you never see ransomware, for example. Those attacks never happen outside of crypto. It’s always demands for Bitcoin or some other type of crypto asset because it’s just the perfect asset for that. We’re seeing increasing numbers of investment scams where people are being told that they can make a fortune overnight because it’ll go into Bitcoin or some other crypto asset that people have heard about and they’ve heard about people getting rich off of that, and they think maybe this is plausible. I think there are a ton of different reasons that criminals use it, but it has been very popular for cyber criminals, and if you look at the proportion of crime that happens using cryptocurrency, it is enormous compared to the number of people who are actually using crypto, investing in crypto; criminal activity is a substantial portion of that. And so I think it’s really been a boon for criminals, and it has caused this situation where everyday people who are using crypto or putting money into crypto have to be on high alert at all times because scams and hacks and frauds are just a part of the ecosystem. People who are enthusiastic and knowledgeable about crypto talk about the scams as though they’re just a normal day-to-day thing. It’s the cost of doing business. Pretty much everyone who has used crypto a substantial amount will, will admit they’ve been scammed at some point. So it’s really a free for all out there right now.
[00:46:52] Bob: I do sometimes wonder, is there’s so much fraud in crypto that maybe it wouldn’t exist or wouldn’t exist and it’s, weren’t encouraging cybercrime.
[00:47:00] Molly White: Yeah, it’s hard to say. I think it’s hard to say at that alternative scenario, but a substantial amount of activity in cryptocurrency is criminal. We are seeing more adoption of crypto broadly, and it’s clear that these days there is some institutional demand for crypto, there’s certainly been the retail enthusiasm around it, and so I wouldn’t say it’s fair to say that all of cryptocurrency is criminal activity or criminal behavior, but it certain is a shocking amount of it. And when you see crypto ATMs, you’re right, that is an enormous conduit for crypto thefts. There was a 99% increase from 2023 to 2024 with fraud involving cryptocurrency ATMs according to the FBI. $250 million was reported lost just in 2024, mostly from victims who are over the age of 60. And it was good to see that there has been a little bit of action coming out against these crypto ATM operators. There was recently a lawsuit against a major ATM operator coming out of the Attorney General for the District of Columbia explaining that the fraud protections are completely insufficient and that these crypto ATM companies are profiting off of thefts a lot of the time. They are taking large chunks from these transactions in which people are being scammed. That is how they are making their money. And there has been some attention to it, but I would say it has not been nearly enough.
[00:48:29] Bob: So I covered tech stocks during the dot com bubble, and I wrote a lot about the housing market during the housing bubble that proceeded The Great Recession, and I’m here to tell you, people who are making a lot of money really hate people who throw cold water on their investment bubbles. I still remember some of the hate mail I got. Well, Molly is in the midst of that right now.
[00:48:52] Bob: You’re a lone voice out there, one of the few voices. What is that like?
[00:48:55] Molly White: It’s a strange world. It’s certainly not a popular thing to do if you’re a crypto enthusiast. People don’t particularly like what I do. But I think it’s important to, to say, look, this technology, this financial asset has very serious issues, and that everyday people are suffering as a result of it, and there has not been sufficient enforcement or regulation around cryptocurrency, and we really need to be careful around this type of asset class. I am not opposed to crypto existing. I support anyone’s right to put money into cryptocurrency or speculate on the price of whatever token they’re interested in. I think that’s fine if people do so with all the facts, they have proper information to make informed decisions about what they’re doing with their money, and that they can trust that even if those assets go up or down in price, they will still be there tomorrow. But that is not the state of crypto at this point in time. At this stage, people not only have to understand that they’re taking on risk when it comes to the inherent volatility of most crypto assets, which are they go up and down in price quickly and dramatically. They also have to worry about the tokens that they’re putting money into being scams themselves. We’ve seen entire new words created for rug pulls and the types of other crypto crimes where people will create crypto assets and promise people the world for them, and then just take off overnight with all the assets and leaving the investors with nothing. And then finally, there’s the concern that, you know, even if you do have these crypto assets and you’re willing to take on the risk with the volatility, you may lose access to those assets through some sort of scam or the company might go bankrupt and you’ll be left with nothing. We’ve seen that happen over and over again. And I think just an unacceptable level of risk to ask people to take on. There’s a serious issue with information being available to investors to make informed decisions. And frankly, everyday people who are being encouraged to get into crypto are being brought in with an extreme disadvantage, and ultimately, end up often serving as exit liquidity for someone who is more sophisticated and potentially engaged in criminal activity.
[00:51:18] Bob: Okay, I need you to slow down on that last set of sentences there, ’cause I think that’s really important. Exit liquidity, tell me what you mean by exit liquidity.
[00:51:25] Molly White: So if you launch a cryptocurrency token and you want to scam somebody, you can’t actually make any money off of it unless you convince someone to buy it. And so that’s really what I’m referring to with exit liquidity is, you know, these people who are told that this is the hot new token and you buy it now you’re going to get in early and then make a ton of money. They are often exit liquidity, meaning that once they buy in, the person who created the token sells all of the tokens and takes off with their money essentially. It causes the tokens that these people purchase to go to zero so they can no longer get out of those positions, and the person who created the token makes a lot of money.
[00:52:08] Bob: But you also said before that, that the retail investors are at a severe information disadvantage, especially in this situation. Can you talk about that a little bit more?
[00:52:16] Molly White: So a lot of the regulations that exist in the financial system that we’re used to when it comes to securities or commodities or various forms of investments that people make beyond just holding currency, a lot of those regulations come down to making sure that everyone is on a fairly level playing field, that you understand the risks that you’re taking on. If you choose to say buy a stock, every stock that is issued on the public stock exchanges have this whole literature that is published on a regular basis that explains how the company’s doing, and the outlook for their future business, and the risks that are involved and the people who are running the company, and you know a lot about them and their background. That type of information is not available in crypto. Oftentimes, cryptocurrency projects are run by anonymous people, you don’t know even who is running the company that you’re being told to, to get involved with. You don’t know anything about who’s backing these companies. You don’t know about their business practices. You don’t know anything about whether they will continue to stay in business or what type of business they plan to do. It’s really just marketing. You get to read their marketing materials. There is no even oversight really to ensure that their marketing materials are accurate, and so it is just a breeding ground for scams because people can anonymously launch a cryptocurrency, promise people that it will be, it’ll change the whole system, and it’ll make billions of dollars, and then just take off with the money, and there’s really no oversight or enforcement stopping them.
[00:54:03] Bob: So I realize I’m invoking a legal term, and we’re not the law, we’re not a legal podcast, but that sure sounds like a Ponzi scheme to me that the early people make money and the less, people at the end are left without a chair. Why is this or not like a Ponzi scheme?
[00:54:19] Molly White: Many of these are Ponzi schemes. Just plainly speaking, crypto Ponzi schemes are a huge amount of the crypto fraud that we see. I would not say that crypto itself is a Ponzi scheme, but it is a vehicle for Ponzi schemes and we see many of them.
[00:54:36] Bob: As the person who is with the pins for the bubble, somebody’s going to blame you when the bubble bursts or when people lose money. Have you had that experience?
[00:54:44] Molly White: Absolutely. Yeah, people really don’t like it when you rain on the parade, but ultimately, I think that any asset should be able to speak for itself, and if you have to threaten people not to be critical of your asset, then there’s probably something seriously wrong. And like I said, a lot of the issues in this sector rely on, or stem from people not having adequate information about the token that they’re investing in or the company or the person behind the company. And so the more people are trying to hide that information, the more skeptical I get that something might be going on here that’s not aboveboard. But it’s very common unfortunately in the crypto world for people to attack those who are critical or skeptical, or even just asking questions about a project because so much of crypto’s value comes from the perception that this is an exciting token or an exciting project and, you know, the second that someone introduces doubt there, it can cause prices to go down.
[00:55:50] Bob: Okay, so all this skepticism, all well and good enough, fear, warnings, all that, but I have a friend who 7 years ago invested $1000 in X and he just bought a boat, so why shouldn’t I do this? What do you say to a person who comes to you with that?
[00:56:06] Molly White: Yeah, I hear that a lot, and you could say the same thing about someone who invested in a Ponzi scheme or any sort of scam. There are people who make money from scams, that’s why they exist. And sometimes it’s not the people who started the scam, sometimes it’s just people who got in early. But that does not mean that every person who, who buys in is going to be the winner, and in fact, it is fairly rare for that to happen. When it comes to crypto, there are certainly cryptocurrencies that are not scams. I’m not trying to claim that every crypto asset is inherently a scam, but there is an enormous amount of risk that people are taking on. And you can make a similar statement about oh, I know someone who bought Apple stock decades ago, and now they’re a billionaire. It happens. People sometimes choose the right token or the right stock or they get in at the right time. But you do need to pay attention to the sort of overall odds and the likelihood that will happen again. These days, a lot of people who are purchasing crypto assets are actually getting in pretty late. Many of the times they are getting in when the hype is at an all-time high, which often correlates with prices being at all-time highs. And so as more and more people get excited, they buy the marketing around how they can get rich just like some early investor, they often are buying at fairly high prices and ultimately, crypto goes through these boom-and-bust cycles where we see it go from tens of thousands of dollars to a fraction of that amount. And oftentimes that is when people lose serious amounts of money. We saw it happen in 2022; now crypto prices are back up, and I suspect it’s only a matter of time before we see it happen again.