
Bob Sullivan
The next time you fire up your favorite streaming service, the music you hear might be made by a robot. Maybe you don’t care; you’re just looking for something to help you kill those 30 minutes on the treadmill. But you should care. The sound you might not hear is a canary in a coal mine that’s gone silent. If “human” musicians can be replaced by bots, so can you.
That’s why we’ve just released a new four-part miniseries on the future of music over at the Debugger podcast, which I host for Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy. Grammy-nominated folk singer Tift Merritt is our guide through this complicated cultural and economic story. The series is called “Sugar High.”
“I think that everyone is a little shell-shocked from streaming, and it’s very hard to get your mind around things getting worse than that,” Tift told me.
The vast majority of music fans don’t know how much streaming services have changed the economics of the music business, but Tift makes it crystal clear. The series follows Tift as she enters the studio to record her first new album in almost a decade — she’d taken time off to raise her daughter. She’s going to spend about $50,000 to make the record, a bargain by historic standards. But to earn out that advance, she’ll need about 10 million streams on a service like Spotify.
Ten million streams! Just to get back to …$0.
Tift Merritt is, as I explain in episode one, a huge success story. Don Henley covered one of her songs. She toured with Elvis Costello. She has several songs with millions of streams. Her record Tambourine earned a Grammy nomination for country album of the year. And yet, her ability to earn even a middle-class living as a working musician and mom is….well, it doesn’t really exist any longer.
There’s no arguing that tech has made more music available to more people, and it has made it easier for unknown artists to share their undiscovered talents with the world. That was always the promise of the Internet. But along the way, the path towards discovery has narrowed, as the spoils of the system have been siphoned off by tech companies.
“I remember in 2010 I put a record out and I got my first royalty statement and I realized what a huge impact streaming was on our economy. It was a fourth of what I usually got, and I realized that I could no longer live in New York City. I couldn’t afford it,” she said. “So…oh my God, shouldn’t I be a dental hygienist? This is a, an equation that is broken.”
But that problem pales in comparison to the storm clouds gathering around artificially-generated music. Artists and record labels alike are worried that “robots” — trained by ingesting decades of music recordings — will generate endless royalty-free ghost music. Those songs will fill listeners’ playlists, crowding out real art, leaving musicians like Tift without revenue streams.
That future feels overstated. Listeners will reject soulless music, won’t they? Like so much of today’s AI conversation, this debate is full of hyperbole and puffery, investment bubbles and doomsayers. One can imagine AI tools being part of human music creation, just as synthesizers and sampling have been used to make art. But one can also imagine large tech companies making the decisions that suit them, artists and art be damned.
One thing is certain: absent some other force, cost-cutting will drive the outcome. If AI ghost music is more profitable than real music, it will replace art and artists. Just as AI will replace lawyers, and journalists, and….every other kind of work that can be done cheaper by software. How do we prepare for this? How do we design outcomes that benefit society as a whole, rather than a small set of investors? It’s a conversation we need to have right now.
Of course, this conversation deserves far more nuance than I just gave it, so that’s why this miniseries is just the start of a dialogue. Later in the series, we’ll hear from Reid Wick of the Recording Academy of America (the Grammy people) and Jen Jacobson, Executive Director of the Artist Rights Alliance. We’ll be having more interviews at Debugger after we release this four-part miniseries. I hope you’ll be part of the conversation, too.
I do hope you’ll listen to this series by clicking play below, by clicking off to Spotify, or by finding it on your favorite podcast service. But if podcasts aren’t your thing, a transcript is available here.

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